United States of America reiterated from the nuclear deal with Iran
The slogan of President Trump’s campaign “America First” have now become “American alone.”
Perhaps it is difficult to establish if this decision of President Trump reflects a comprehensive strategy towards Middle East or it is just based on the election promise and in the opposition to Obama administration. – Paulo Botta*
On 8th May, four days ahead of its schedule, the President of the United States decided unilaterally ignoring the quarterly report of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Iran’s compliance with its obligations under the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan (CJAP).
This decision means official reiteration of US from the treaty which was signed in July 2015, which was then known as Group 5+1 (US, Great Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany) with Islamic Republic of Iran for putting end to the nuclear programme developed outside the supervision of IAEA.
The President Trump supported the re-establishments of main sanctions (freezing of activities and commercial seizure to individuals and Iranian enterprises) and gave six months to the foreign enterprises for closing their business in that country at the risk of seeing their business affected in US (secondary sanctions).
However, this decision of Trump is a bad news for all. For Iran, for other signatories of CJAP and same for USA. For Iran, it is a bad news because President Rouhani who supported the deal against the opposition’s will and the conservatives are going to see his capacity diminished. Those sectors who are going to present themselves like they were right for biding against this deal with USA. They are going to have few incentives for carrying out constructive politics ahead in this region. This Iranian generation is not going to believe diplomacy once again.
This is a bad news for Europe as this was the one of the diplomatic success for them as they have invested their 10 years in negotiations. This unilateral decision of President Trump will lead to the weakening of the transatlantic relations whose agenda does not exhaust with the Iranian issue.
The European companies who have tried to carry out the business with Iran, with the economic impacts, which will implicate in their own country, they will see these potential benefits diminishing without any real cause.
This is also bad news for USA, whose international credibility will be seen affected. How to convince a country for an agreement with Washington, if later the said agreement is abandoned without any reason? It is a negative from the economic point of view. As of now North American enterprises and banks could have carry out the business in Iran but now they are going to leave their places to the Chinese firms. From the security point of view also, since Middle East now, will not be safer place if an agreement with such importance is left aside.
The slogan of President Trump’s campaign “America First” have now become “American alone.”
Perhaps it is difficult to establish if this decision of President Trump reflects a comprehensive strategy towards Middle East or it is just based on the election promise and in the opposition to Obama administration.
Surely, the European countries will try to save whatever they can save, or it is said, they will incorporate some of the points which are priority for Trump government (missile development and regional policies) but will not be easy especially because of the lack of will of the most important signatories of this deal: US and Iran.
In spite of all, Israel and Saudi Arabia welcomed this decision, as both the countries are involved in the military and diplomatic conflicts with Iran due to their regional policies, it is also a bad news for them too.
From the Israeli point of view, Netanyahu’s government has made the Iranian danger at the core of its foreign policy. Their actions, understanding the legitimate security interests of Israel, they will not serve in the long term to improve their security situation with Iran for out of the regional system once again. And, we can say the same situation is with Saudi Arabia.
Middle East once is in a problematic situation. Syria and Iraq are in middle of conflicts since 7 and 15 years respectively. Yemen is immersed in the civil war which have dragged the military forces of Saudi Arabia, UAE and the countries from Horn of Africa. Libya is divided in factions in the open battle. Lebanon, after the first parliamentary election since 2009, Hezabollah has increased his political representation. In Gaza, the confrontation between the people, incited by Hamas, have been crushed by the Israeli forces, leaving behind dozens of the dead people. Egypt and Turkey are living with their own problems. How will it help the rupture of deal with Iran, in this context?
